A common question we get is “What is the probability of getting accepted into a medical school?” Getting into a medical school depends on several factors – GPA, test scores, essays, letters of recommendations, yield management decision of colleges, your luck, and more.
A related question is “What can we do to increase out odds of getting accepted?” i.e. things that we can control and possibly influence. One factor under the control of students is the number of colleges to apply and the list of colleges to apply.
A mathematical model can offer some guidance into number of schools to apply. One way to look at the mathematics of acceptance is to rely on Binomial probabilities. We present a simplified model which one looks at the number of applications and its impact on potential medical school acceptance.
Let us denote p as the
acceptance rate at a university i.e. success.
For my example, I have assumed this to be constant and equal to 2.4% (that is
approximately the average acceptance rate based on AAMC application data).
Thus, p = 0.024
Let us denote q as the failure rate.
Now, we know
q = 1 - p
q = 1 - 0.024
q = 0.976
Probability of getting AT LEAST 1 acceptance = 1 - probability of getting ZERO acceptances
Binomial probability is given by this formula: nCr * p^n * q^(1-n)
Where
n = number of program one applies to
r = number of acceptances
nCr = Binomial coefficient in combination format
Let’s assume you apply
to 15 programs, n = 15
Probability of getting ZERO acceptance means r = 0
Probability of getting ZERO acceptance = P(r = 0)
P(r=0) = 15 C 0 * (0.024)^0 * (0.976)^15
P(r=0) = 0.69461997
Probability of getting AT LEAST 1 acceptance = P(r >=1) = 1 - P(r=0)
P(r>=1) = 1 -
0.69461997
P(r>=1) = 0.30538003 OR 30.54%
If you apply to 15 colleges, there is 30.54% chance you will get at least 1 acceptance.
Here is the probability of getting AT LEAST 1 acceptance for various N (number of applications): Please refer to chart below.
NOTE: Universities change their programs and/or criteria constantly. In many cases, they may discontinue their BS/MD program. This list is for informational purposes only. Please contact the respective university to find out about the current program and associated requirements.
The list is in alphabetical order by state.
NOTE: Universities change their programs and/or criteria constantly. In many cases, they may discontinue BS/MD program. This list is for informational purposes only. Please contact the respective university to find out about the current program and associated requirements.
List is in alphabetical order.